Thursday, 20 May 2010
Coalition Programme For Government
David Cameron and Nick Clegg introduce their full programme for government for the next five years... Let's see how the odd couple get on...
Walter Matthau and Jack Lemmon have got nothing on these two.
Wednesday, 19 May 2010
And The Winner Is...
On the surface it is possible to assert that David Cameron and the Conservative Party won the election, they won more seats and more of the popular vote than their rivals. However, given the unpopularity of the incumbent Prime Minister and government, the state of the economy, unemployment and the spectre of the Iraq War, this Tory victory almost feels like a defeat. The result - an unsatisfactory coalition with the Liberal Democrats and an election that the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King believes will leave the winning Party out of power for a generation due to the unpopularity of the necessary austerity measures. Parallels could be drawn with the 1992 General Election, in which neither the Labour or the Conservative Parties particularly wanted to win due to the gathering economic storm, and ultimately Labour's short term defeat was their long term gain.
Again a case could be made for the Liberal Democrats and Nick Clegg as the big winners of the 2010 General Election; an increase in their share of the popular vote, increased exposure on a national level and the possibility to influence legislation at a cabinet level. But, and there was always going to be a big but, are the Liberal Democrats trading short term influence for long term obscurity . Many voters feel betrayed that the Lib Dems are propping up a Tory administration that are ideologically significantly separate and are going to be used are a tool for David Cameron to modernise his own party. It will be too easy at the next general election for the Conservative Party to blame the Liberal Democrats for the failings of this current administration. Damned by both sides of the party, the Liberal Democrats could spend another thirty years waiting for a taste of power.
If there is a significant loser in this election there is little argument that Gordon Brown has achieved this most dubious of accolades. But it always was likely to happen, any incumbent Prime Minister has a record to defend and Gordon Brown just was not that good at defending his legacy. However, the Labour Party could be the big winners of the election in the long term, even though the electorate roundly rejected their current reincarnation. There obviously is a will amongst the British electorate for a progressive policy agenda, and probably the Labour Party would have polled better if Gordon Brown was not in power, but the loss was not a rout as many commentators had predicted. If the Labour Party reorganise and realign themselves during their period in opposition the next election could be a significant success - if Mervyn King is to be believed.
And the winner is... No one!
Orwell Was Right...
"Twelve voices were shouting in anger, and they were all alike. No question,
now, what had happened to the faces of the pigs. The creatures outside
looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again;
but already it was impossible to say which was which." - George Orwell (Animal Farm)
Tuesday, 11 May 2010
What Price Power?
So with rumours abound that David Cameron has ceded to many Liberal Democrat policy demands in order to have the strength to form the next government, what price has he paid for the acquiescence of the "right wing" of the Conservative Party? Obviously, there is a price to be paid, even the slightest suggestion of the EU normally has the Tory Party split down the middle, so forming a government with the most Pro-European party can be perceived as forming an unholy alliance.There has to be a sweetener for the Right Wing Tories to swallow the bitterest of pills. The suggestion is that for the silence of the Right, David Cameron has agreed that certain senior cabinet positions will be filled by the aforementioned Michael Howard, David Davies and, possibly most surprisingly Iain Duncan Smith.
Their reintroduction back into the front line of British politics will surely shorten the shelf life of any coalition government, but it also raises important questions concerning the direction of new Conservative Party policy. The British electorate overwhelmingly voted for centre left, progressive parties (over half the country at the last count), but the influence of these Right Wingers at cabinet level will surely result in an unpopular shift towards the Right of the political spectrum.
Aneurin Bevan once commented after brokering the deal between the Ministry of Health and the BMA for the NHS, that the concessions he had to give was akin to "stuffing their mouths with gold". David Cameron probably has a lot of sympathy for Nye's sentiments...
Tuesday, 20 April 2010
Fear and Loathing on the 2010 Tory Campaign Trail...
This general election has already thrown up a few surprises (the Lib Dems second in YouGov latest opinion poll, anyone?), but the biggest surprise of the whole election campaign is the Tories inability to gain any significant political momentum. Given the economic conditions and the unpopularity of the incumbent government, the Tories must have believed that the election would be an easier fight than it has been...
The constant media references to the similarities between David Cameron and Tony Blair, have been somewhat misleading - giving the impression that the 2010 general election was going to be an inverse repeat of 1997, in which Labour swept to power on a popular tide of goodwill and hope. Probably a more insightful comparison would be to compare this election with 1992: the opposition in both examples are trying to reinvent themselves, attempting to throw off the shackles of negative public opinion and a lack of trust. Plus the rising spectre of increasing tough economic conditions, in which the harsh realities of a global recession will come to bear - the public may just be comforted by the devil they know.
There are several key factors which are impacting upon the Conservatives inability to gain a significant lead in the opinion polls:
- The Shadow Cabinet is weak and unable to connect with the public - in 1997 the Labour Shadow Cabinet was a significant strength of Tony Blair's election strategy, whether it was Robin Cook, Mo Mowlam, Gordon Brown, Jack Straw or David Blunkett; the Cabinet was prompted as a 'Cabinet of Talent'. Currently the Conservatives are appearing to focus solely on David Cameron and George Osborne, sidelining the poor(!) Chris Grayling for fear of costly gaffes. Even John Prescott was given meaningful airtime in comparison.
- Lack of a coherent message - the main focus of the Conservatives' election manifesto is the 'Big Society' in which the public can effect the running and management of many public institutions. The issues for most people are rooted in real problems, employment, transport or education, but the Tories have proposed an abstract concept that generates few pragmatic solutions for real issues. The Labour Party in 1997 offered a tangible response to the genuine concerns of the nation. The 'Big Society' is perceived as empty rhetoric, from the party that once claimed that "there is no such thing as society".
- Whilst other parties are weak on the topic of Europe, the Conservatives can not exploit their advantage - in the public's opinion the European Union is at a particularly low point, the rise of UKIP is testimony to this fact. The Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats are potentially committed to further European integration, but David Cameron is wary of using the populist EU stick to beat his opponents for fear that it may open old wounds, in the Conservative Party, that have only been plastered over - not healed. Witness the undercurrent of discontent at the 2009 Conservative Party conference, with David Cameron's pledge that if the Lisbon Treaty was ratified the next Tory government would work within its parameters.
- David Cameron's inability to connect with many of the electorate - whether this is due to old fashion class prejudice or the perception that he is style over substance, David Cameron has struggled to find a voice that speaks to a majority of people. This is not helped by an advertising campaign, organised by Andy Coulson, that appears to be confused and artificial. Most elections that are fought on the concept of 'change' have their vanguard amongst a section of the population that have been under-represented in previous regimes; youth, working class or ethnic sections of the community. It is difficult for the general public to believe that a privileged and wealthy white man is sincere about significant change - also it is not a typical election pledge by a party that is perceived to be more concerned with the conservation of society rather than its radical overhaul.
- The inability of the Conservative Party to reassure the public that the recession would have been better under their guidance - even though there are significant differences between Labour and Tory economic policy, it would have been impossible for the Conservative Party to have claimed that they would have avoided the recession with tighter regulations of the banking sector. After all it was the Conservative Party that actively encouraged deregulation of the finance sector allowing 'bankers' the freedom to recklessly gamble the country's economic stability by chasing larger profits.
Thursday, 15 April 2010
Clause 76
Tuesday, 23 March 2010
A Plague On Both Your Houses...
However in all seriousness, these latest allegations against both the Houses of Parliament call in to question the nature of the British democracy. A democracy that allows: MPs to maintain more than one job; that allows lobbying of special interest groups directly to individual MPs; a bicameral system that in every respect is not bicameral; and a democracy that allows MPs not to follow the best interests of their constituencies or the country, but of their own self-serving requirements. How can any Cabinet member, former Cabinet member or individual MP, be allowed to take money for direct influence upon the legislative process?
This really begs the question; who runs this country?
- MPs: Apparently not - they are willing to sell their political capital to feather their own nests
- The People: Not a chance - our ability to effect the political process is marginalised to once every five years
- The Media: To a certain extent - campaigns can have an influence, but their impact is often over stated by themselves
- Corporations: Probably - through offering big money directorships, sponsorships and through paying MPs for advocacy, corporations often wield undue influence over the political process in Britain
There should be no difference in perception when considering the lobby system of paying for the advocacy of MPs and MPs undertaking a second, third or fourth job. Just because one is slightly more transparent than the other does not make either of them acceptable.
Furthermore, David Cameron has already attempted to gain political capital off this scandal, but a word of warning: a year ago, the Conservative Party Shadow Cabinet had twenty-six members and between them they had one hundred and fifteen non-executive directorships. Now whose interest are they going to serve - the electorate or the companies that are paying very well for their services?
The solution is relatively simple, but a tough pill to swallow. MPs should be paid more, but on a few conditions: the expenses system is completely over hauled (see earlier post), no secondary employment can be undertaken and there can be no paid consultancy between MPs and lobbyists. MPs can only have one master - and that is the British public.
Thursday, 25 February 2010
The Power of the Communications Director
The power of these media gurus is worrying, but also it belies a presidential trend in British politics that started in the 1980s under Margaret Thatcher and Bernard Ingham, and which has grown in significance ever since. This relationship between Prime Minister and Communication Director is inversely proportional to the power of the political party in parliament; as the power of the PM's closest advisers increases, the power of the political party has diminished. The Prime Minister has become to believe that on their shoulders alone does the fate of the party rest - reality or extreme hubris, only the perspective of history will allow full comprehension.
The diminishing role of the political parties can be attributed to a number of sources; the centralization of government, the focus of the media and the strength of the Government's majority. But the most significant factor is the rise of the career politician; a politician that is a product of the party machine, a politician that is more a voice for the party in the local constituency, rather than a voice for their constituency in Parliament.
Without the collective will and strength of the public and Parliament combined, this worrying trend will continue unabated. The Prime Minister and their Cabinet will continue to collect Parliamentary and legislative power, at the expense of democracy, in the end the Prime Minister will become President in all but name.
It is becoming all too easy to substitute Andy Coulson and Alastair Campbell for Charles Colson and Karl Rove; in a system in which style and media presentation are far more important than actual facts, it is easy to believe that the Communications Director can really determine the collective reality.
Thursday, 18 February 2010
The Not So Gravy Train
So it will come as no surprise that the latest opinion poll, released today, placed the Conservatives a commanding 9 points ahead of Labour, should be followed shortly by a ill judged outburst by veteran MP Sir Nicholas Winterton on BBC Radio 5 Live. The comments centred around the plans for MPs to travel standard class on trains, instead of the traditional first class, when travelling between their constituencies and Westminster. In a rant that appeared to reinforce every negative Conservative stereotype that David Cameron has attempted to eradicate, Sir Nicholas Winterton stated:
"If I was in standard class I would not do work because people would be looking over your shoulder the entire time, there would be noise, there would be distraction. They are a totally different type of people. There's lots of children, there's noise, there's activity. I like to have peace and quiet when I'm travelling."This outburst was followed quickly by the denunciation of Sir Winterton by Tory Head Office as "the out-of-touch views of a soon-to-retire backbench MP". David Cameron feels he has worked too hard and too long at re-branding the Conservative Party for an "old Tory" to ruin it. It is not the first time that one of the Wintertons has started a train related controversy; Ann Winterton (wife of Sir Nicholas and fellow MP) told a racist joke involving a train in 2002, which ultimately cost her position in the shadow cabinet.
David Cameron is learning very quickly that it is impossible to control a parliamentary political party of the size of the "Big 3", in fact it is almost impossible to manage a political party of more than one.
Just ask Roger Knapman and Nigel Farage, who only had eleven other MEPs in their party and they still got mired in several controversies... but they did have to deal with Robert Kilroy-Silk, so they can be forgiven for taking their eyes of the political football.
Wednesday, 9 September 2009
Cameron has gone a Courtin'
The speech centred around the necessity for spending cuts and fiscal prudence, but rather than discuss any number of viable and significant spending efficiencies, Mr Cameron chose to target the 'bourgeois' MPs (it is ironic given it is only weeks after Alan Duncan's Oliver Twist impersonation) with a tabloid centric attack. Giving the newspapers an easy headline and easier target is nothing new for any politician, but the time and the style of the new attack is significant.
It signals David Cameron's attempt to court the tabloid audience in the election year with a performance that would not have been out of place at last month's Edinburgh's Fringe Festival. It is also significant that Mr Cameron has chosen a policy area that is the responsibility of the House of Commons instead of a government policy, in this respect David Cameron should share in some of the criticism that he has apportion.
The tabloid audience is not the usual target of the Conservative Party, most Tories would rather keep them at arms length, but political will is determined by political necessity and in election year every voter counts. It will be interesting to see if David Cameron pursues the tabloids with as much vigour as Tony Blair did.
On the positive side, the newly announced Conservative plan would shave a massive 0.002% off the national debt.
Tuesday, 7 July 2009
Quango and Cash
Quangos are a simple target for the opposition as proven by Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and now David Cameron. Since the Quango, like the Civil Service, must remain politically impartial it becomes very simply to score political points off these organisations. It is similar to winning a debating competition where one participant has gagged and chained their opponent.
Furthermore, there has been little in the way of inspiration leadership from David Cameron, recently it almost seems that he is playing 'leader-of-the-opposition by numbers';
- first attack the Governments public spending plans,
- then mention how the opposition will increase efficiency of the public sector therefore saving the tax payer billions,
- and finally attack Quangos
Admittedly there needs to be reform of the system of Quangos, in terms of accountability and transparency, but to return them to their original government department would create a similar megalith just under a different guise and in a different place.
The result would be the next leader of the opposition would attack the size of the bureaucracy and government. Now that is a vicious circle...
Wednesday, 10 June 2009
Conservatives Announce Policies...
Sadly not, backtracking faster than Usain Bolt in a 100m sprint, the Conservatives said this was not a policy announcement, but a statement of Labour Party policy past 2011. It is approaching summer and the opening of the silly season, but this has to be one of the strangest exchanges of any Parliament.
- First Andrew Lansley claims it was Tory Party policy
- Then Gordon Brown attacks the Tories for destroying the NHS
- David Cameron retorts by claiming it is actually Labour Party policy
- Everyone starts pointing fingers claiming it is each others policy
- And Nick Clegg changes the subject completely
That is democracy in action...
However, it is easy for the public to believe that it could be both a Labour policy and a Tory policy; since neither party has clearly stated any official economic policies or public spending projections for the next five years. This policy could well be the policy of both parties, but with the public still reeling from the MPs' expenses scandal neither Gordon Brown nor David Cameron wish to tell the public how bad things are going to be.
It is going to be a fun summer; playing policy hot potato...
Tuesday, 9 June 2009
The Most Surprising Result.
This, more than the BNP winning two MEP seats in the North of England, was the most surprising result of Sunday's EU election. Wales has been a stronghold for the Labour Party for nearly a hundred years, even during the dark days of 1979 and 1983, there was always a light on in Wales for the Labour Party. If Gordon Brown and the Labour Party can lose to the Conservatives in Wales then no constituency and MP is safe.
According to Dante there are seven deadly sins; Gluttony, Greed, Sloth, Envy, Pride, Lust and Labour losing Wales to the Conservative Party. It is probably a natural progression, the Labour Party had committed the six other deadly sins during the MPs' expenses scandal, so losing Wales was the complete set.
Tuesday, 2 June 2009
Revolutionary Leader
- Never trust a leader who wants power, but then is willing to relinquish it almost immediately. Tony Blair made similar fanciful claims when he was Opposition Leader.
- The tactic being employed by the Conservatives is a simple one, 'what ever the public wants'. This is a very dangerous strategy, without any defining ideology to guide their hand the Conservatives will potentially get backed into a corner of conflicting public opinion. Just do not mention the EU.
Wednesday, 27 May 2009
Cameron salutes 'Girl Power'
It seems that David Cameron is really taking to heart the serious lessons of 1997; first it was the borrowing of the New Labour manifesto, now it is the teachings of the sage-like Spice Girls and ‘girl power’.
Even though Mr Cameron has introduced the media friendly, yet wholly vacuous policy of ‘people power’, he has still shied away from true reform of the political system – the House of Lords. Many political commentators have recently called for many reforms of the
Has the public missed something, has Parliament secretly passed a law that made the House of Lords the sacred cow of British politics, that no one is allowed to mention? Or is it a mad old uncle that everyone knows exists, but is too embarrassed to talk to them, just in case they say something controversial and there is a faint scent of wee?
Reform of the Upper House is the perfect opportunity to increase scrutiny and transparency, whilst at the same time affording Parliament greater credibility as the home of a true democracy. Reforms such as electing its members (this can not be that hard most other countries are doing it and they seem to be coping with the stress), and revoking the Parliament Act, which allows the government to bully bills through into law without consent of the Upper House.
Tuesday, 26 May 2009
Master and Apprentice
In an article that conjures up vivid images of 1997, Mr Cameron calls for a radical transformation of Parliament, local government and the EU. And how is this to be done? By increasing transparency, using more referenda and empowering the electorate through redistribution of power to neighbourhoods and local government. Impressive rhetoric, especially for a Conservative leader, who until recently would have been committing political suicide even to mention the words "radical" and "reform" in the same sentence. But it has all been done before.
The Third Way and Tony Blair anyone?
Anthony Giddens, the foremost architect of New Labour's Third Way dream, outlines the six tenets of the Third Way:
- Reconstruction of Government (check)
- The cultivating of civil society (check)
- Reconstruction of the economy (check)
- Reform of the welfare state (check)
- Ecological modernization (check)
- Reform of the global system (check)
This sadly proves only one point; that the opposition before any election will provide the public with the aspirational dreams of a potential utopia, whilst the government must attempt to justify the current dystopia.
