The Night of the Long Knives

With a humiliating defeat in the European and Council elections on the cards for the Labour party, pressure is going to increase exponentially on Gordon Brown to call a General Election. The calls will almost be deafening. How will Gordon Brown survive?

He will stave off press speculation and public opinion like many of his predecessors by a cabinet reshuffle. Thus almost blaming the cabinet for the failures of the current government. That's wonderfully called 'collective responsibility'.

Gordon Brown's enemies are surrounding him, slowly but surely in the dark corners of the PLP, Labour is still crucially split along old divisions. Not divisions such as Old and New Labour, that one has been laid to rest long ago, but the Brownites and Blairites. Mr Brown will want all his allies close, in important positions, this is not the time for heeding the Godfather's advice about keeping you enemies closer, in this current climate the PM will form a 'Kitchen Cabinet' with his closest political allies.

It is obvious that Gordon Brown will purge his Cabinet of ministers that could threaten his leadership, with the exception of the poison chalices of the Home Office and Justice Ministry which it is possible to expect James Purnell and David Miliband to fall on their swords at. Also a possibility is that Mr Brown could use the re-shuffle to follow the populist route and exercise the ghost of the Bliarite era; Hazel Blears, Alan Johnson and John Hutton.

With Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper being promoted to senior positions in Mr Brown's 'Kitchen Cabinet' the purge will be complete and Gordon Brown might survive until next year, but a week is a long time in politics, let alone a year.

It will be interesting which story the Daily Telegraph chooses to publish on Thursday morning, it could provide an intriguing insight into the paper's motives and agenda. But it should be easy to guess.