Friday 29 May 2009

Cold War... Ah, the good old days

There have been many calls, in various media outlets, for Britain to involve themselves in the process of arbitration between North Korea and the rest of the world. At best, this is nonsensical and arrogant: at worst, dangerously naive and just plain foolish.

The news has just been released that North Korea has fired its sixth short range missile since Monday, combined with the underground nuclear test. These are potentially desperate times.

North Korea has seemingly shocked the world with its audacity and unpredictable nature. But it needs to be understood that the world has moved on since the end of the Cold War, North Korea has not. They still play by the hard and fast rules of world diplomacy that were developed in the period between the end of the Second World War and 1991; that of brinkmanship, sabre rattling and shows of strength that gain diplomatic leverage.

This 'hard-ball' diplomacy has worked well for Kim Jong-il, and his father Kim Il-sung, no other country has gained so many concessions from the US by threatening posture and behaviour. No other country can demand so much attention from China and Japan.

It needs to be understood that the 'Greater Leader' considers these tactics successful, and like all Pavlovian dogs the more attention and concessions that the international community give; the foreign policy tactic is reinforced in North Korea.

Only China can demand change in North Korea, but they fear a humanitarian crisis could force millions of refugees across the mutual border. A crisis that China neither needs nor can afford.

British involvement should be limited to supporting China, Japan, Russia, the US and South Korea, just because there is no added value in the British interjection.

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